Pitches, Balls and Reserves – Where the Iconic Series Will Be Decided

Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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