The Unsuccessful Attempt to Host Cop31 Appears Like a Mess – Yet It Could Actually Be the Optimal Outcome Achievable

Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference obstructed from the top if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.