This surely should not go on. The logic defies rational sense that it persists. And yet, it does.
A Historic Triumph Defying Expectations
Aston Villa entered Saturday's Premier League encounter at Chelsea looking to equal a club record of eleven consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in 1897 and 1914. For much of the match, this feat seemed improbable, as Chelsea controlled proceedings, secured the lead, and could have added to their advantage. However, Chelsea are vulnerability when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa now possess a remarkable knack of securing away victories after falling behind.
First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball cannoning in off his leg and the post after his first effort was saved by the goalkeeper. Subsequently, he nodded in the winner with a deft header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. The forward might feel some fortune was overdue, and it's undeniable the first goal involved a significant element of good fortune. At the moment, though, Lady Luck is favoring Villa.
The Numbers Behind an Unlikely Streak
Nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have managed a clean sheet in just one of those matches. Their underlying metrics have been superior in only six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This pattern should not, yet pundits have been saying that for some time, and Villa keep on winning. The key question is whether their results will eventually align with their displays or if their performances can improve to justify the results.
This should not be sustainable, but everyone has been saying that for a while and Villa continue winning.
A Core Trait: Belief
Coming from behind is not merely a trait of this season. Over the past 3 seasons, no side has won more points when trailing than Villa's 54; 18 of those were secured this season, 50% more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have scored nine goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.
- First, they possess a deep-rooted self-belief that means no deficit ever feels insurmountable. This is, to an extent, self-perpetuating: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they are convinced they can do it again.
- Secondly, Emery has proven very skilled at influencing games through his substitutions.
The Emery Effect
While Chelsea had the better of the xG battle 2.1-1.4, Villa were the dominant force from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery made a triple substitution. Ollie Watkins replaced Malen, who had found it difficult with limited service. Immediately, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's runs behind the defensive line caused problems. Onana and Sancho also came on, bolstering the midfield and adding the flank presence they had eschewed earlier.
The Blues registered ten attempts to Villa's none before the substitutions; afterwards, Villa had 11 chances to Chelsea's 4. By the end, Villa were commanding and could easily have won more comfortably. Once again, Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca seemed unable to respond as the game slipped away; the impression remains that he is better at implementing a game plan with preparation time than making adjustments on the fly.
Moment of Magic
Villa have also developed a welcome habit of individuals producing moments of sensational quality to alter games. Morgan Rogers has scored crucial goals at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him shifting the ball onto his right foot and whipping a finish home has become a seasonal leitmotif. It was the winger who transformed the game from the bench at Leeds. The striker changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of defenders like Ezri Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were key. At present, it's not always the entire team playing brilliantly, but enough players within it delivering to earn the victories.
What Comes Next?
Will they be able to maintain this run? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season approaches its midway point, they must be considered as part of the championship conversation, certainly more so than teams like Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. The upcoming away fixture at Arsenal will be a major examination of that claim. Villa defeated Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG forty percent higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this term.
Arsenal have assembled their own sequence of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being entirely convincing. Tuesday will be a challenge for both sides – and if Villa win a twelfth game in a row, it would become almost impossible to deny their championship pedigree.
