UK Diplomats Cautioned Regarding Armed Intervention to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents show that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Show Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the files included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We should work out a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.